How long have the ‘soaps’ got left?

New data predicts the years British soaps will end…

The BBC, in a quest to make dramas with ‘international appeal’ rather than cater just to a domestic British audience have chopped down serials in recent years quicker than the Sycamore Gap tree was hacked down. Holby City, Doctors and River City have all been given the heave-ho by Beeb bosses. Network 10 in Australia are saying goodbye to Neighbours (again) and Hollyoaks (Lime Pictures) has been bumped off to streaming and E4 from its traditional Channel 4 home.

In the early days of UK television serials came and went, some lasted years, others weeks. Emergency Ward 10 (ATV) ran for a decade and was ITV’s first twice weekly serial. Crossroads (ATV) ran for a quarter of a century on ITV and Brookside (Mersey TV) had a 21-year run on Channel 4.  Less successful offerings included Albion Market (Granada) that managed a year and Eldorado (BBC) that also aired for 12 months. These days however with declining ratings the ‘big’ soaps are being held onto by telly executives who fear having to come up with new formats that could fill those slots.

Will Phil still be at it in ten years? EastEnders / BBC

However, due to changing viewing habits, declining ratings, and growing competition from streaming platforms, even the most iconic soaps aren’t guaranteed a long term future. But when are they predicted to be of our screens? To find out, Betway Casino analysed historical viewership data of some of the UK’s most popular shows, including popular soaps, to predict when they could die out completely.

The findings suggest that EastEnders (BBC) could be off our screens in just 12 years (2037). According to predictions, next year the average viewership will be 3.4 million, and in just 5 years (2030) viewing figures will drop by 1.3 million per episode.

Emmerdale (ITV) follows behind ‘Enders, with predictions suggesting the soap will end just two years later in 2039. Data shows that in 10 years time viewing figures will drop by 2.3 million viewers per episode to 1 million.

Can Ken carry on for another decade or more? Coronation Street / ITV

The world’s longest-running television serial Coronation Street (ITV) will, the data suggests, be the last standing, with a predicted end date of 2072 – 33 years later than its ITV counterpart. Next year the soap will have an estimated viewership of 7.5 million and 6.7 million by 2035, dropping just 0.8 million viewers in five years.

Despite rising costs, screen time is booming in Britain with the average adult now watches around 12 hours of content each week, spending over five hours watching traditional television, four and a half hours watching streaming services, and an additional two and a half on catch-up platforms like BBC iPlayer. That equates to a whopping 26.5 full days a year.

Brits are also spending over an hour a week scrolling TikTok and nearly two hours on YouTube, signalling a potential shift towards bite-sized, on-demand content from creators.